Steam Predictor
Steam Predictor is a project designed to predict the average first-year sales, the first-year average gross income, and most relevant items in a game based on its game properties. Steam predictor uses data from over 20,000 games (data taken at https://steamspy.com) and machine learn to make predictions. This is an alpha version and a lot of thing may change.
HOW TO USE ?
Select the properties of the game (Platforms for which the game will be launching, required age to play the game, game genre, game Sub Genre, If game supports achivements and the game's price). In future, more properties will be added to predictor.
HOW TO INTERPRET THE RESULTS ?
Average Owners in First Years: owners is the average sale numbers in first year
Average Gross Revenue in First Year: Its the gross revenue of game ( owners* price) in first year.
Most Relevant itens: Its the itens that mostly influnce the sales.
For example, let's say you have price, age required and achievements in your prediction. This means that the price, the required age and the achievements greatly influence the sales of the game. Try to play with these propeties and see the changes in sales.
Comments
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So a strategy game priced at 299.99 will sell 161 copies for 48k, but if it's a penny more 300.00 then no copies.
However if we drop it to the paltry sum of just $99.99 a copy then we make 3.25 million $ in our first year. Impressive. Let's get crackin' boyz!
I think the AI has a lot more learning to do...
(also NONE of this data addresses things like exposure, known creator/studio, quality of presentation, etc. etc. etc. - it's just number crunching and wild guesstimates. I wouldn't lean too heavily on the deduced information particularly in how poorly Steam now features indie and small games brought to it's over flooded market :( )
Still I appreciate the effort to analyze some of the data and it might be good for showing how relative an effect like having achievements in a game vs not having them, or placing a game under strategy category on Steam vs RPG etc.
Also in an attempt to be a bit more positive -
I really like how your game Extinction Alien Invasion looks.
Everyone should click on the view all by HenriqueLima button at the top right and check it out.
It would be interesting if you put it on Steam and compared the results vs what your above tool predicts :)
Anyway best of luck!
Thank you for you kind words. What you say really makes sense and i ll consider it in next update. This is the very first version, there is a lot of things to do, but i was very busy in pastdays ;=;. I think that the model will get better in next update. Thank you again. :)